Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 11 drives the near-even 47% market-implied odds on 8°C or below versus 18°C or higher. European and global models show divergence in the position of a weak frontal boundary and the strength of northerly flow, with ensemble spreads exceeding 6–8°C by the target date. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight lows near 11–13°C, yet recent model runs highlight potential for either enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies or warmer advection from the southwest. Traders weigh these variables ahead of updated ECMWF and GFS runs, which will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
8°C or below 94%
18°C or higher 94%
15°C 27%
11°C 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
8°C or below
94%
9°C
19%
10°C
21%
11°C
23%
12°C
21%
13°C
22%
14°C
22%
15°C
27%
16°C
21%
17°C
19%
18°C or higher
94%
8°C or below 94%
18°C or higher 94%
15°C 27%
11°C 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
8°C or below
$0 KL.
94%
9°C
$0 KL.
19%
10°C
$0 KL.
21%
11°C
$0 KL.
23%
12°C
$0 KL.
21%
13°C
$0 KL.
22%
14°C
$0 KL.
22%
15°C
$0 KL.
27%
16°C
$0 KL.
21%
17°C
$0 KL.
19%
18°C or higher
$0 KL.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 11 drives the near-even 47% market-implied odds on 8°C or below versus 18°C or higher. European and global models show divergence in the position of a weak frontal boundary and the strength of northerly flow, with ensemble spreads exceeding 6–8°C by the target date. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight lows near 11–13°C, yet recent model runs highlight potential for either enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies or warmer advection from the southwest. Traders weigh these variables ahead of updated ECMWF and GFS runs, which will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 11 drives the near-even 47% market-implied odds on 8°C or below versus 18°C or higher. European and global models show divergence in the position of a weak frontal boundary and the strength of northerly flow, with ensemble spreads exceeding 6–8°C by the target date. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight lows near 11–13°C, yet recent model runs highlight potential for either enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies or warmer advection from the southwest. Traders weigh these variables ahead of updated ECMWF and GFS runs, which will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 11 drives the near-even 47% market-implied odds on 8°C or below versus 18°C or higher. European and global models show divergence in the position of a weak frontal boundary and the strength of northerly flow, with ensemble spreads exceeding 6–8°C by the target date. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight lows near 11–13°C, yet recent model runs highlight potential for either enhanced radiational cooling under clear skies or warmer advection from the southwest. Traders weigh these variables ahead of updated ECMWF and GFS runs, which will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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