Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 12?
11°C or below 100%
21°C or higher 100%
13°C 39%
17°C 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
100%
12°C
26%
13°C
39%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
25%
17°C
30%
18°C
19%
19°C
20%
20°C
19%
21°C or higher
100%
11°C or below 100%
21°C or higher 100%
13°C 39%
17°C 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
11°C or below
$0 KL.
100%
12°C
$0 KL.
26%
13°C
$0 KL.
39%
14°C
$0 KL.
28%
15°C
$0 KL.
28%
16°C
$0 KL.
25%
17°C
$0 KL.
30%
18°C
$0 KL.
19%
19°C
$0 KL.
20%
20°C
$0 KL.
19%
21°C or higher
$0 KL.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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