Recent short-range forecasts from sources including timeanddate, Weather25, and EaseWeather indicate Moscow minimum temperatures near 12–13°C on August 26 amid overcast skies and light drizzle, aligning closely with late-August climatology of 11–12°C lows. Trader sentiment remains nearly even between the 7°C-or-below bucket and the 12°C outcome because ensemble models show modest spread driven by variable cloud cover, wind speeds, and potential for enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under clearer breaks. A modest cool anomaly in recent observations has kept the lower tail in play, while persistent moisture and modest winds favor stabilization near the historical baseline; updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining uncertainty ahead of market resolution.