Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Shanghai's September 8 minimum will likely fall between 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited overnight cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market-implied odds for 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or brief showers can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Persistent warm advection and seasonal norms near 23°C provide a stable baseline, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could push readings toward 21°C or below, accounting for the modest 26.5% on 18°C-or-lower. Updated guidance within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
18°C or below 53%
21°C 44%
22°C 44%
26°C 44%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 8, 2026
18°C or below
53%
19°C
23%
20°C
23%
21°C
44%
22°C
44%
23°C
24%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
44%
27°C
38%
28°C or higher
1%
18°C or below 53%
21°C 44%
22°C 44%
26°C 44%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 8, 2026
18°C or below
$0 KL.
53%
19°C
$0 KL.
23%
20°C
$0 KL.
23%
21°C
$0 KL.
44%
22°C
$0 KL.
44%
23°C
$0 KL.
24%
24°C
$0 KL.
26%
25°C
$0 KL.
26%
26°C
$0 KL.
44%
27°C
$0 KL.
38%
28°C or higher
$0 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Shanghai's September 8 minimum will likely fall between 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited overnight cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market-implied odds for 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or brief showers can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Persistent warm advection and seasonal norms near 23°C provide a stable baseline, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could push readings toward 21°C or below, accounting for the modest 26.5% on 18°C-or-lower. Updated guidance within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Shanghai's September 8 minimum will likely fall between 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited overnight cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market-implied odds for 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or brief showers can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Persistent warm advection and seasonal norms near 23°C provide a stable baseline, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could push readings toward 21°C or below, accounting for the modest 26.5% on 18°C-or-lower. Updated guidance within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional forecasts indicates Shanghai's September 8 minimum will likely fall between 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds and limited overnight cooling. This tight clustering explains the near-even market-implied odds for 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C outcomes, as small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or brief showers can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Persistent warm advection and seasonal norms near 23°C provide a stable baseline, while any unexpected clear skies or stronger winds could push readings toward 21°C or below, accounting for the modest 26.5% on 18°C-or-lower. Updated guidance within 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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