Traders see near-certainty that Luigi Mangione will remain in custody past 2026 because his federal guilty plea to stalking charges resulting in death sets up a December sentencing with guidelines pointing to decades behind bars, while the parallel New York state murder case continues through pretrial motions and a June trial date. Recent court rulings rejecting defense delays, upholding key evidence, and navigating double-jeopardy arguments have reinforced the timeline, with Mangione held at the Metropolitan Detention Center since late 2024. The market-implied odds reflect the structural barriers of overlapping federal and state proceedings, where even a favorable state outcome would leave the federal sentence intact. Realistic upset scenarios remain narrow and hinge on an unexpected health-related release, a last-minute plea for time served, or a successful appeal overturning the federal conviction before year-end—developments that have shown little momentum in recent hearings.