U.S. federal prosecutors' narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges against Nicolás Maduro, unsealed after his January 2026 capture by American forces in Caracas and subsequent extradition, have produced trader consensus favoring 60+ years of prison time at 34.5 percent given mandatory minimums up to life under relevant statutes. Yet the race remains tight because Maduro's not guilty plea, successful April court ruling securing Venezuelan-funded defense counsel, and ongoing pretrial motions in Manhattan federal court leave room for acquittal, suppression of evidence, or diplomatic interventions that could yield no prison time at 23.5 percent. The closely matched 20–40 years band at 25.6 percent reflects post-conviction sentencing guideline ranges, while shorter terms lag behind charge structures; a plea deal or June 2026 hearing outcomes could consolidate these probabilities before any trial verdict later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật60+ 35%
20–40 25.6%
Không ngồi tù 24%
40–60 9%
$527,336 KL.
$527,336 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Không ngồi tù
24%
<20
5%
20–40
26%
40–60
9%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
20–40 25.6%
Không ngồi tù 24%
40–60 9%
$527,336 KL.
$527,336 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Không ngồi tù
$373,715 KL.
24%
<20
$57,382 KL.
5%
20–40
$48,076 KL.
26%
40–60
$15,913 KL.
9%
60+
$32,250 KL.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. federal prosecutors' narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges against Nicolás Maduro, unsealed after his January 2026 capture by American forces in Caracas and subsequent extradition, have produced trader consensus favoring 60+ years of prison time at 34.5 percent given mandatory minimums up to life under relevant statutes. Yet the race remains tight because Maduro's not guilty plea, successful April court ruling securing Venezuelan-funded defense counsel, and ongoing pretrial motions in Manhattan federal court leave room for acquittal, suppression of evidence, or diplomatic interventions that could yield no prison time at 23.5 percent. The closely matched 20–40 years band at 25.6 percent reflects post-conviction sentencing guideline ranges, while shorter terms lag behind charge structures; a plea deal or June 2026 hearing outcomes could consolidate these probabilities before any trial verdict later in the year.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$527,336Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. federal prosecutors' narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges against Nicolás Maduro, unsealed after his January 2026 capture by American forces in Caracas and subsequent extradition, have produced trader consensus favoring 60+ years of prison time at 34.5 percent given mandatory minimums up to life under relevant statutes. Yet the race remains tight because Maduro's not guilty plea, successful April court ruling securing Venezuelan-funded defense counsel, and ongoing pretrial motions in Manhattan federal court leave room for acquittal, suppression of evidence, or diplomatic interventions that could yield no prison time at 23.5 percent. The closely matched 20–40 years band at 25.6 percent reflects post-conviction sentencing guideline ranges, while shorter terms lag behind charge structures; a plea deal or June 2026 hearing outcomes could consolidate these probabilities before any trial verdict later in the year.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$527,336Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...U.S. federal prosecutors' narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges against Nicolás Maduro, unsealed after his January 2026 capture by American forces in Caracas and subsequent extradition, have produced trader consensus favoring 60+ years of prison time at 34.5 percent given mandatory minimums up to life under relevant statutes. Yet the race remains tight because Maduro's not guilty plea, successful April court ruling securing Venezuelan-funded defense counsel, and ongoing pretrial motions in Manhattan federal court leave room for acquittal, suppression of evidence, or diplomatic interventions that could yield no prison time at 23.5 percent. The closely matched 20–40 years band at 25.6 percent reflects post-conviction sentencing guideline ranges, while shorter terms lag behind charge structures; a plea deal or June 2026 hearing outcomes could consolidate these probabilities before any trial verdict later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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