Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 95% implied probability for Michigan's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's January 2026 announcement seeking a seventh term in a solidly Republican district where he has secured double-digit victories in recent cycles, including 2024. The seat's partisan lean—bolstered by former President Trump's 20-point margin in 2020—combined with the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger and no competitive early polling, cements this commanding position amid low-cycle visibility before the August 4 primary. Recent Democratic candidate Ben Ambrose's local appearances have failed to generate momentum. Realistic challenges include a Moolenaar primary upset, his unexpected withdrawal, a national Democratic wave elevating turnout in this rural northern Michigan district, or a personal scandal altering the race dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMI-02 House Election Winner
MI-02 House Election Winner
$42,903 KL.
$42,903 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$42,903 KL.
$42,903 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$21,645 KL.
95%
Democratic Party
$21,258 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 95% implied probability for Michigan's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's January 2026 announcement seeking a seventh term in a solidly Republican district where he has secured double-digit victories in recent cycles, including 2024. The seat's partisan lean—bolstered by former President Trump's 20-point margin in 2020—combined with the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger and no competitive early polling, cements this commanding position amid low-cycle visibility before the August 4 primary. Recent Democratic candidate Ben Ambrose's local appearances have failed to generate momentum. Realistic challenges include a Moolenaar primary upset, his unexpected withdrawal, a national Democratic wave elevating turnout in this rural northern Michigan district, or a personal scandal altering the race dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$42,903Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 95% implied probability for Michigan's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's January 2026 announcement seeking a seventh term in a solidly Republican district where he has secured double-digit victories in recent cycles, including 2024. The seat's partisan lean—bolstered by former President Trump's 20-point margin in 2020—combined with the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger and no competitive early polling, cements this commanding position amid low-cycle visibility before the August 4 primary. Recent Democratic candidate Ben Ambrose's local appearances have failed to generate momentum. Realistic challenges include a Moolenaar primary upset, his unexpected withdrawal, a national Democratic wave elevating turnout in this rural northern Michigan district, or a personal scandal altering the race dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$42,903Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 95% implied probability for Michigan's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar's January 2026 announcement seeking a seventh term in a solidly Republican district where he has secured double-digit victories in recent cycles, including 2024. The seat's partisan lean—bolstered by former President Trump's 20-point margin in 2020—combined with the absence of a high-profile Democratic challenger and no competitive early polling, cements this commanding position amid low-cycle visibility before the August 4 primary. Recent Democratic candidate Ben Ambrose's local appearances have failed to generate momentum. Realistic challenges include a Moolenaar primary upset, his unexpected withdrawal, a national Democratic wave elevating turnout in this rural northern Michigan district, or a personal scandal altering the race dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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