Incumbent Rep. Val Hoyle's bid for a third term in the solidly Democratic OR-04 district anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic House election winner, reflecting the seat's D+12 partisan lean from 2024 results where Hoyle won by 8 points despite trailing Kamala Harris slightly. Recent Democratic primary challenges from Melissa Bird and Daniel Bahlen, highlighted in forums and coverage over the past week, have drawn little fundraising momentum against Hoyle's established name recognition and resources ahead of the May 19 primary. Weak Republican spending signals minimal general election contest, aligning with ratings like Cook Political's likely Democratic hold. Late-breaking scandals, a primary upset, or a national Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though incumbency advantages and historical safe-seat patterns make shifts unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOR-04 House Election Winner
OR-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,146 KL.
91%
Republican Party
$92 KL.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Val Hoyle's bid for a third term in the solidly Democratic OR-04 district anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic House election winner, reflecting the seat's D+12 partisan lean from 2024 results where Hoyle won by 8 points despite trailing Kamala Harris slightly. Recent Democratic primary challenges from Melissa Bird and Daniel Bahlen, highlighted in forums and coverage over the past week, have drawn little fundraising momentum against Hoyle's established name recognition and resources ahead of the May 19 primary. Weak Republican spending signals minimal general election contest, aligning with ratings like Cook Political's likely Democratic hold. Late-breaking scandals, a primary upset, or a national Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though incumbency advantages and historical safe-seat patterns make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,239Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Val Hoyle's bid for a third term in the solidly Democratic OR-04 district anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic House election winner, reflecting the seat's D+12 partisan lean from 2024 results where Hoyle won by 8 points despite trailing Kamala Harris slightly. Recent Democratic primary challenges from Melissa Bird and Daniel Bahlen, highlighted in forums and coverage over the past week, have drawn little fundraising momentum against Hoyle's established name recognition and resources ahead of the May 19 primary. Weak Republican spending signals minimal general election contest, aligning with ratings like Cook Political's likely Democratic hold. Late-breaking scandals, a primary upset, or a national Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though incumbency advantages and historical safe-seat patterns make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$9,239Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Val Hoyle's bid for a third term in the solidly Democratic OR-04 district anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic House election winner, reflecting the seat's D+12 partisan lean from 2024 results where Hoyle won by 8 points despite trailing Kamala Harris slightly. Recent Democratic primary challenges from Melissa Bird and Daniel Bahlen, highlighted in forums and coverage over the past week, have drawn little fundraising momentum against Hoyle's established name recognition and resources ahead of the May 19 primary. Weak Republican spending signals minimal general election contest, aligning with ratings like Cook Political's likely Democratic hold. Late-breaking scandals, a primary upset, or a national Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though incumbency advantages and historical safe-seat patterns make shifts unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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