Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Rhoden faces stiff competition from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, who leads recent Republican primary polls at 34% per Mason-Dixon's April survey, with Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden trailing around 17-18%, ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two if no one exceeds 35%. South Dakota's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974—combined with Dan Ahlers' unopposed Democratic nomination amid the party's struggles to field legislative candidates, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3. Recent April debates and steady primary polling have reinforced this positioning, with ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Late scandals, primary-induced nominee fatigue, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSouth Dakota Governor Election Winner
South Dakota Governor Election Winner
$12,857 KL.
$12,857 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
6%
$12,857 KL.
$12,857 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$4,894 KL.
94%
Democrat
$7,963 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Rhoden faces stiff competition from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, who leads recent Republican primary polls at 34% per Mason-Dixon's April survey, with Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden trailing around 17-18%, ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two if no one exceeds 35%. South Dakota's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974—combined with Dan Ahlers' unopposed Democratic nomination amid the party's struggles to field legislative candidates, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3. Recent April debates and steady primary polling have reinforced this positioning, with ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Late scandals, primary-induced nominee fatigue, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,857Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Rhoden faces stiff competition from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, who leads recent Republican primary polls at 34% per Mason-Dixon's April survey, with Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden trailing around 17-18%, ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two if no one exceeds 35%. South Dakota's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974—combined with Dan Ahlers' unopposed Democratic nomination amid the party's struggles to field legislative candidates, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3. Recent April debates and steady primary polling have reinforced this positioning, with ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Late scandals, primary-induced nominee fatigue, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$12,857Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Rhoden faces stiff competition from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, who leads recent Republican primary polls at 34% per Mason-Dixon's April survey, with Jon Hansen and Toby Doeden trailing around 17-18%, ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two if no one exceeds 35%. South Dakota's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974—combined with Dan Ahlers' unopposed Democratic nomination amid the party's struggles to field legislative candidates, drives trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3. Recent April debates and steady primary polling have reinforced this positioning, with ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican." Late scandals, primary-induced nominee fatigue, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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