PP holds a clear lead in Jaén vote-share estimates ahead of the November 29 general election, with recent provincial projections placing it at roughly 35 percent compared to PSOE near 30 percent and Vox around 21 percent. National polling trends showing PP ahead of PSOE by several points have translated into local models calibrated on prior cycles, reinforcing trader consensus on PP as the most likely plurality winner. Seat allocations under D’Hondt remain competitive for the final deputy, yet the market focuses on first-place finish, where PP’s margin has stayed stable through October and early November updates. No major provincial-specific shocks have altered these patterns in the past month, leaving the outcome sensitive to final turnout and any late national swings.