The Republican nominee Brandon Herrera holds a 67% implied probability in the TX-23 market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, including a roughly 15-point Trump margin in 2024 across South and West Texas counties. Incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid scandal, enabling Herrera—who had previously challenged him—to consolidate GOP support after the March primary and May runoff without a divisive contest. Recent June and July 2026 polls show Herrera leading Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout by single digits, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrats have added the seat to their target list, yet limited late-cycle movement and the seat’s structural advantages continue to anchor trader consensus around the Republican outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-23 House Election Winner
TX-23 House Election Winner
$35,084 KL.
$35,084 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
67%
Democratic Party
34%
$35,084 KL.
$35,084 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,275 KL.
67%
Democratic Party
$14,808 KL.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Brandon Herrera holds a 67% implied probability in the TX-23 market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, including a roughly 15-point Trump margin in 2024 across South and West Texas counties. Incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid scandal, enabling Herrera—who had previously challenged him—to consolidate GOP support after the March primary and May runoff without a divisive contest. Recent June and July 2026 polls show Herrera leading Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout by single digits, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrats have added the seat to their target list, yet limited late-cycle movement and the seat’s structural advantages continue to anchor trader consensus around the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$35,084Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Brandon Herrera holds a 67% implied probability in the TX-23 market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, including a roughly 15-point Trump margin in 2024 across South and West Texas counties. Incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid scandal, enabling Herrera—who had previously challenged him—to consolidate GOP support after the March primary and May runoff without a divisive contest. Recent June and July 2026 polls show Herrera leading Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout by single digits, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrats have added the seat to their target list, yet limited late-cycle movement and the seat’s structural advantages continue to anchor trader consensus around the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$35,084Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee Brandon Herrera holds a 67% implied probability in the TX-23 market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, including a roughly 15-point Trump margin in 2024 across South and West Texas counties. Incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid scandal, enabling Herrera—who had previously challenged him—to consolidate GOP support after the March primary and May runoff without a divisive contest. Recent June and July 2026 polls show Herrera leading Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout by single digits, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the race as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrats have added the seat to their target list, yet limited late-cycle movement and the seat’s structural advantages continue to anchor trader consensus around the Republican outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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