Bilateral tariff talks between the United States and China remain in a preliminary phase, with the Board of Trade still soliciting public comments on proposed reciprocal reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods as of late July 2026. Recent summits produced purchase commitments for agricultural products and critical minerals along with extensions of existing tariff suspensions through November 2026, but no comprehensive new agreement has been finalized. With only two weeks remaining before the August 31 resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing procedural steps make a publicly announced mutual deal improbable. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for “No” reflects this limited window for breakthrough, though an unexpected announcement from senior officials before month-end could still shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS x China tariff agreement by August 31?
US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral tariff talks between the United States and China remain in a preliminary phase, with the Board of Trade still soliciting public comments on proposed reciprocal reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods as of late July 2026. Recent summits produced purchase commitments for agricultural products and critical minerals along with extensions of existing tariff suspensions through November 2026, but no comprehensive new agreement has been finalized. With only two weeks remaining before the August 31 resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing procedural steps make a publicly announced mutual deal improbable. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for “No” reflects this limited window for breakthrough, though an unexpected announcement from senior officials before month-end could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,410Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral tariff talks between the United States and China remain in a preliminary phase, with the Board of Trade still soliciting public comments on proposed reciprocal reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods as of late July 2026. Recent summits produced purchase commitments for agricultural products and critical minerals along with extensions of existing tariff suspensions through November 2026, but no comprehensive new agreement has been finalized. With only two weeks remaining before the August 31 resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing procedural steps make a publicly announced mutual deal improbable. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for “No” reflects this limited window for breakthrough, though an unexpected announcement from senior officials before month-end could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$2,410Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bilateral tariff talks between the United States and China remain in a preliminary phase, with the Board of Trade still soliciting public comments on proposed reciprocal reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods as of late July 2026. Recent summits produced purchase commitments for agricultural products and critical minerals along with extensions of existing tariff suspensions through November 2026, but no comprehensive new agreement has been finalized. With only two weeks remaining before the August 31 resolution date, the compressed timeline and ongoing procedural steps make a publicly announced mutual deal improbable. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for “No” reflects this limited window for breakthrough, though an unexpected announcement from senior officials before month-end could still shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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