Bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, set up after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, continue to focus on selective tariff adjustments, agricultural purchases, and critical minerals within an existing one-year truce framework extended to November 2026. No high-level announcements or finalized packages have emerged in recent weeks, and the technical scope of Section 301 issues plus reciprocal measures supports trader consensus that a comprehensive tariff agreement is unlikely before the August 31 deadline. The 97.3% implied probability on “No” reflects this measured pace of managed trade negotiations. A sudden joint statement from trade officials or accelerated progress on the $30 billion reciprocal framework in the next two weeks remains a narrow pathway that could still alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS x China tariff agreement by August 31?
US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, set up after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, continue to focus on selective tariff adjustments, agricultural purchases, and critical minerals within an existing one-year truce framework extended to November 2026. No high-level announcements or finalized packages have emerged in recent weeks, and the technical scope of Section 301 issues plus reciprocal measures supports trader consensus that a comprehensive tariff agreement is unlikely before the August 31 deadline. The 97.3% implied probability on “No” reflects this measured pace of managed trade negotiations. A sudden joint statement from trade officials or accelerated progress on the $30 billion reciprocal framework in the next two weeks remains a narrow pathway that could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,410Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, set up after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, continue to focus on selective tariff adjustments, agricultural purchases, and critical minerals within an existing one-year truce framework extended to November 2026. No high-level announcements or finalized packages have emerged in recent weeks, and the technical scope of Section 301 issues plus reciprocal measures supports trader consensus that a comprehensive tariff agreement is unlikely before the August 31 deadline. The 97.3% implied probability on “No” reflects this measured pace of managed trade negotiations. A sudden joint statement from trade officials or accelerated progress on the $30 billion reciprocal framework in the next two weeks remains a narrow pathway that could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$2,410Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bilateral talks through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, set up after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, continue to focus on selective tariff adjustments, agricultural purchases, and critical minerals within an existing one-year truce framework extended to November 2026. No high-level announcements or finalized packages have emerged in recent weeks, and the technical scope of Section 301 issues plus reciprocal measures supports trader consensus that a comprehensive tariff agreement is unlikely before the August 31 deadline. The 97.3% implied probability on “No” reflects this measured pace of managed trade negotiations. A sudden joint statement from trade officials or accelerated progress on the $30 billion reciprocal framework in the next two weeks remains a narrow pathway that could still alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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