Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 92.5% market-implied odds by topping multiple leaderboards in coding and agentic tasks, including strong SWE-bench Verified scores and Arena.ai Elo leads exceeding 40 points over competitors. The model's 1-million-token context window and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous multi-step workflows have reinforced trader consensus on its edge through mid-May. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a slim 6.0% chance via advantages in multimodal reasoning and GPQA benchmarks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family sits at 1.0% after solid but less dominant recent showings. A late-May surprise release or benchmark surge from Google or OpenAI could narrow the gap, though current momentum and lack of immediate challengers support the heavy favoritism.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 93%
Google 6%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,036,919 KL.
$9,036,919 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
93%
6%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 6%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,036,919 KL.
$9,036,919 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$684,303 KL.
93%
$625,973 KL.
6%
OpenAI
$769,480 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$561,541 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$530,587 KL.
<1%
Meta
$591,846 KL.
<1%
xAI
$679,620 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,490 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$564,147 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$478,923 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$471,347 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$406,756 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,423,820 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$418,351 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 92.5% market-implied odds by topping multiple leaderboards in coding and agentic tasks, including strong SWE-bench Verified scores and Arena.ai Elo leads exceeding 40 points over competitors. The model's 1-million-token context window and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous multi-step workflows have reinforced trader consensus on its edge through mid-May. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a slim 6.0% chance via advantages in multimodal reasoning and GPQA benchmarks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family sits at 1.0% after solid but less dominant recent showings. A late-May surprise release or benchmark surge from Google or OpenAI could narrow the gap, though current momentum and lack of immediate challengers support the heavy favoritism.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,036,919Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 92.5% market-implied odds by topping multiple leaderboards in coding and agentic tasks, including strong SWE-bench Verified scores and Arena.ai Elo leads exceeding 40 points over competitors. The model's 1-million-token context window and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous multi-step workflows have reinforced trader consensus on its edge through mid-May. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a slim 6.0% chance via advantages in multimodal reasoning and GPQA benchmarks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family sits at 1.0% after solid but less dominant recent showings. A late-May surprise release or benchmark surge from Google or OpenAI could narrow the gap, though current momentum and lack of immediate challengers support the heavy favoritism.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$9,036,919Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored the 92.5% market-implied odds by topping multiple leaderboards in coding and agentic tasks, including strong SWE-bench Verified scores and Arena.ai Elo leads exceeding 40 points over competitors. The model's 1-million-token context window and demonstrated capabilities in autonomous multi-step workflows have reinforced trader consensus on its edge through mid-May. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a slim 6.0% chance via advantages in multimodal reasoning and GPQA benchmarks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 family sits at 1.0% after solid but less dominant recent showings. A late-May surprise release or benchmark surge from Google or OpenAI could narrow the gap, though current momentum and lack of immediate challengers support the heavy favoritism.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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