Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, combined with its gated Mythos Preview demonstrating leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks, underpins the 63.5% implied probability that it will hold the top large language model by the end of June. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent strength in instruction-following, long-context reliability, and enterprise-focused capabilities more heavily than competitors’ incremental updates. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a solid 24% position through its edge on certain reasoning benchmarks and April 2026 platform enhancements, yet lacks a comparable flagship leap in the immediate window. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and xAI’s Grok 4 trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively, reflecting strong but currently narrower leads in quality metrics and real-time data integration. Market odds incorporate the typical risk of last-minute benchmark shifts or delayed rollouts before June 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 64%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.7%
$1,460,831 KL.
$1,460,831 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
64%
24%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 64%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.7%
$1,460,831 KL.
$1,460,831 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$30,624 KL.
64%
$18,768 KL.
24%
OpenAI
$49,364 KL.
5%
xAI
$15,024 KL.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$136,551 KL.
1%
Meta
$8,184 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$412,961 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$11,912 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$20,998 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$270,764 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,849 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$8,651 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, combined with its gated Mythos Preview demonstrating leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks, underpins the 63.5% implied probability that it will hold the top large language model by the end of June. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent strength in instruction-following, long-context reliability, and enterprise-focused capabilities more heavily than competitors’ incremental updates. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a solid 24% position through its edge on certain reasoning benchmarks and April 2026 platform enhancements, yet lacks a comparable flagship leap in the immediate window. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and xAI’s Grok 4 trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively, reflecting strong but currently narrower leads in quality metrics and real-time data integration. Market odds incorporate the typical risk of last-minute benchmark shifts or delayed rollouts before June 30.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,460,831Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, combined with its gated Mythos Preview demonstrating leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks, underpins the 63.5% implied probability that it will hold the top large language model by the end of June. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent strength in instruction-following, long-context reliability, and enterprise-focused capabilities more heavily than competitors’ incremental updates. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a solid 24% position through its edge on certain reasoning benchmarks and April 2026 platform enhancements, yet lacks a comparable flagship leap in the immediate window. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and xAI’s Grok 4 trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively, reflecting strong but currently narrower leads in quality metrics and real-time data integration. Market odds incorporate the typical risk of last-minute benchmark shifts or delayed rollouts before June 30.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,460,831Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, combined with its gated Mythos Preview demonstrating leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks, underpins the 63.5% implied probability that it will hold the top large language model by the end of June. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent strength in instruction-following, long-context reliability, and enterprise-focused capabilities more heavily than competitors’ incremental updates. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro maintains a solid 24% position through its edge on certain reasoning benchmarks and April 2026 platform enhancements, yet lacks a comparable flagship leap in the immediate window. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and xAI’s Grok 4 trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively, reflecting strong but currently narrower leads in quality metrics and real-time data integration. Market odds incorporate the typical risk of last-minute benchmark shifts or delayed rollouts before June 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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