Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNone before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 KL.
$29,025 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Chris Wright
5%
Susie Wiles
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
6%
Kelly Loeffler
3%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
None before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.4%
$29,025 KL.
$29,025 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$5,291 KL.
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$9,816 KL.
32%
Chris Wright
$700 KL.
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,153 KL.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$929 KL.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,103 KL.
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$746 KL.
3%
Russell T. Vought
$463 KL.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$403 KL.
1%
Marco Rubio
$488 KL.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$727 KL.
1%
Sean Duffy
$551 KL.
1%
J.D. Vance
$476 KL.
1%
Scott Turner
$341 KL.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$504 KL.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$468 KL.
1%
Doug Collins
$487 KL.
1%
Linda McMahon
$828 KL.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$507 KL.
1%
Mike Waltz
$508 KL.
1%
Doug Burgum
$535 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$29,025Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Khối lượng
$29,025Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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