Recent cabinet turnover—including the departures of Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard—has established a pattern of rapid changes driven by policy execution challenges, internal friction, and presidential priorities around defense operations, immigration enforcement, and regulatory shifts. This backdrop keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered for Pete Hegseth, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles, as traders weigh their respective exposure to ongoing scrutiny over agency management, leaks, or alignment with administration goals. Additional factors include Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements and the administration’s focus on foreign policy developments that could prompt further adjustments. Scheduled votes, public statements, or performance reviews in coming months could widen gaps among contenders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLee Zeldin 42%
Mike Waltz 34.0%
John Ratcliffe 25.6%
Howard Lutnick 25%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
Lee Zeldin
42%
Mike Waltz
34%
John Ratcliffe
26%
Howard Lutnick
25%
Linda McMahon
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
Jamieson Greer
17%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
Doug Collins
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
2%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
44%
Lee Zeldin 42%
Mike Waltz 34.0%
John Ratcliffe 25.6%
Howard Lutnick 25%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
Lee Zeldin
$132 KL.
42%
Mike Waltz
$126 KL.
34%
John Ratcliffe
$115 KL.
26%
Howard Lutnick
$250 KL.
25%
Linda McMahon
$209 KL.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 KL.
18%
Jamieson Greer
$80 KL.
17%
None before 2027
$226 KL.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 KL.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 KL.
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 KL.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 KL.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 KL.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 KL.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 KL.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 KL.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 KL.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 KL.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$118 KL.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 KL.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 KL.
44%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover—including the departures of Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard—has established a pattern of rapid changes driven by policy execution challenges, internal friction, and presidential priorities around defense operations, immigration enforcement, and regulatory shifts. This backdrop keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered for Pete Hegseth, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles, as traders weigh their respective exposure to ongoing scrutiny over agency management, leaks, or alignment with administration goals. Additional factors include Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements and the administration’s focus on foreign policy developments that could prompt further adjustments. Scheduled votes, public statements, or performance reviews in coming months could widen gaps among contenders.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,607Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover—including the departures of Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard—has established a pattern of rapid changes driven by policy execution challenges, internal friction, and presidential priorities around defense operations, immigration enforcement, and regulatory shifts. This backdrop keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered for Pete Hegseth, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles, as traders weigh their respective exposure to ongoing scrutiny over agency management, leaks, or alignment with administration goals. Additional factors include Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements and the administration’s focus on foreign policy developments that could prompt further adjustments. Scheduled votes, public statements, or performance reviews in coming months could widen gaps among contenders.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,607Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover—including the departures of Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Tulsi Gabbard—has established a pattern of rapid changes driven by policy execution challenges, internal friction, and presidential priorities around defense operations, immigration enforcement, and regulatory shifts. This backdrop keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered for Pete Hegseth, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles, as traders weigh their respective exposure to ongoing scrutiny over agency management, leaks, or alignment with administration goals. Additional factors include Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements and the administration’s focus on foreign policy developments that could prompt further adjustments. Scheduled votes, public statements, or performance reviews in coming months could widen gaps among contenders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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