Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district features a toss-up contest between incumbent Republican Bryan Steil and Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by just a few points or tied. Multiple late-October surveys from Democratic-aligned groups and others placed the race within one point, prompting race raters including Cook and Fox News to move the seat toward toss-up or lean-Republican status. Berman has emphasized lowering household costs such as groceries, healthcare, and housing while criticizing Steil’s record on tariffs and related policies, generating momentum in a district that Trump carried by a modest margin in 2024. Steil retains advantages in name recognition, cash on hand exceeding $2 million, and established donor networks, yet heavy outside spending and a national environment have narrowed his historical margins. With voting just days away on November 3, small shifts in turnout among independents or suburban voters in Kenosha and Racine counties could decide the outcome.