Alberta’s citizen-led petition drive, which collected over 300,000 signatures by early May 2026 to place an independence question on the ballot, has created the closest balance in trader sentiment for this market. A recent court ruling quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition for failing to consult Indigenous groups on treaty implications, though the provincial government has signaled plans to appeal. An official referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, will address constitutional amendments and provincial powers but excludes any direct question on leaving Canada. Support for full separation remains around 30 percent in polls, limited by legal barriers, economic integration with the rest of the country, and the absence of comparable momentum in Quebec or other provinces. Outcomes of the appeal, signature verification, or shifts in provincial-federal negotiations could quickly alter the narrow implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$423,748 KL.
$423,748 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$423,748 KL.
$423,748 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta’s citizen-led petition drive, which collected over 300,000 signatures by early May 2026 to place an independence question on the ballot, has created the closest balance in trader sentiment for this market. A recent court ruling quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition for failing to consult Indigenous groups on treaty implications, though the provincial government has signaled plans to appeal. An official referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, will address constitutional amendments and provincial powers but excludes any direct question on leaving Canada. Support for full separation remains around 30 percent in polls, limited by legal barriers, economic integration with the rest of the country, and the absence of comparable momentum in Quebec or other provinces. Outcomes of the appeal, signature verification, or shifts in provincial-federal negotiations could quickly alter the narrow implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$423,748Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta’s citizen-led petition drive, which collected over 300,000 signatures by early May 2026 to place an independence question on the ballot, has created the closest balance in trader sentiment for this market. A recent court ruling quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition for failing to consult Indigenous groups on treaty implications, though the provincial government has signaled plans to appeal. An official referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, will address constitutional amendments and provincial powers but excludes any direct question on leaving Canada. Support for full separation remains around 30 percent in polls, limited by legal barriers, economic integration with the rest of the country, and the absence of comparable momentum in Quebec or other provinces. Outcomes of the appeal, signature verification, or shifts in provincial-federal negotiations could quickly alter the narrow implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$423,748Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta’s citizen-led petition drive, which collected over 300,000 signatures by early May 2026 to place an independence question on the ballot, has created the closest balance in trader sentiment for this market. A recent court ruling quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition for failing to consult Indigenous groups on treaty implications, though the provincial government has signaled plans to appeal. An official referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, will address constitutional amendments and provincial powers but excludes any direct question on leaving Canada. Support for full separation remains around 30 percent in polls, limited by legal barriers, economic integration with the rest of the country, and the absence of comparable momentum in Quebec or other provinces. Outcomes of the appeal, signature verification, or shifts in provincial-federal negotiations could quickly alter the narrow implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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