Federal immigration policy adjustments, including sharp reductions in temporary resident admissions and permanent targets under the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, triggered Canada’s first annual population decline on record in 2025, with Statistics Canada reporting a drop of roughly 102,000 people. These measures, aimed at lowering the non-permanent resident share to 5 percent of the population, produced consecutive quarterly contractions in late 2025 driven by net outflows of international students and workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections now point to flat population growth in 2026, followed by modest rebound, reflecting stabilization after the 2025 adjustment rather than further acceleration. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 60 percent, viewing the prior year’s contraction as the benchmark unlikely to be surpassed given current inflows and policy continuity.