Canada’s federal government has pursued sustained reductions in both permanent and temporary resident admissions through its 2025–2027 and subsequent 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plans, lowering permanent resident targets to 380,000 in 2026 while enforcing caps and expirations on non-permanent residents to bring their share below 5 percent of total population by end-2027. Statistics Canada data confirm net outflows of non-permanent residents drove quarterly declines through the first half of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction since Confederation and outpacing natural increase shortfalls. These policy-driven outflows, reinforced by earlier tightening of study and work permits, have accelerated the reversal from prior high-growth years and support trader expectations that the full-year 2026 drop will exceed prior recorded contractions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
87% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Apr 30, 2027
87% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has pursued sustained reductions in both permanent and temporary resident admissions through its 2025–2027 and subsequent 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plans, lowering permanent resident targets to 380,000 in 2026 while enforcing caps and expirations on non-permanent residents to bring their share below 5 percent of total population by end-2027. Statistics Canada data confirm net outflows of non-permanent residents drove quarterly declines through the first half of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction since Confederation and outpacing natural increase shortfalls. These policy-driven outflows, reinforced by earlier tightening of study and work permits, have accelerated the reversal from prior high-growth years and support trader expectations that the full-year 2026 drop will exceed prior recorded contractions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,813Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has pursued sustained reductions in both permanent and temporary resident admissions through its 2025–2027 and subsequent 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plans, lowering permanent resident targets to 380,000 in 2026 while enforcing caps and expirations on non-permanent residents to bring their share below 5 percent of total population by end-2027. Statistics Canada data confirm net outflows of non-permanent residents drove quarterly declines through the first half of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction since Confederation and outpacing natural increase shortfalls. These policy-driven outflows, reinforced by earlier tightening of study and work permits, have accelerated the reversal from prior high-growth years and support trader expectations that the full-year 2026 drop will exceed prior recorded contractions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$1,813Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government has pursued sustained reductions in both permanent and temporary resident admissions through its 2025–2027 and subsequent 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plans, lowering permanent resident targets to 380,000 in 2026 while enforcing caps and expirations on non-permanent residents to bring their share below 5 percent of total population by end-2027. Statistics Canada data confirm net outflows of non-permanent residents drove quarterly declines through the first half of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction since Confederation and outpacing natural increase shortfalls. These policy-driven outflows, reinforced by earlier tightening of study and work permits, have accelerated the reversal from prior high-growth years and support trader expectations that the full-year 2026 drop will exceed prior recorded contractions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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