Alberta separatists submitted over 300,000 signatures in early May 2026—exceeding the 177,000 threshold—for a citizen-initiated referendum on provincial independence, prompting Premier Danielle Smith to signal openness to an October ballot. However, a May 13 court ruling quashed the petition, citing the government's failure to consult First Nations on treaty implications under Treaties 6, 7, and 8, with signature sheets now locked pending appeal. Smith has vowed to challenge the "anti-democratic" decision legally, while pressure mounts for her to add the question to the province's scheduled October 19 referendum on other issues like immigration. Traders' 50.5% yes probability captures this tension between strong grassroots momentum and procedural barriers; a swift appeal win or executive action could tip toward yes, while prolonged litigation favors no.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$416,793 KL.
$416,793 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$416,793 KL.
$416,793 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists submitted over 300,000 signatures in early May 2026—exceeding the 177,000 threshold—for a citizen-initiated referendum on provincial independence, prompting Premier Danielle Smith to signal openness to an October ballot. However, a May 13 court ruling quashed the petition, citing the government's failure to consult First Nations on treaty implications under Treaties 6, 7, and 8, with signature sheets now locked pending appeal. Smith has vowed to challenge the "anti-democratic" decision legally, while pressure mounts for her to add the question to the province's scheduled October 19 referendum on other issues like immigration. Traders' 50.5% yes probability captures this tension between strong grassroots momentum and procedural barriers; a swift appeal win or executive action could tip toward yes, while prolonged litigation favors no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$416,793Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists submitted over 300,000 signatures in early May 2026—exceeding the 177,000 threshold—for a citizen-initiated referendum on provincial independence, prompting Premier Danielle Smith to signal openness to an October ballot. However, a May 13 court ruling quashed the petition, citing the government's failure to consult First Nations on treaty implications under Treaties 6, 7, and 8, with signature sheets now locked pending appeal. Smith has vowed to challenge the "anti-democratic" decision legally, while pressure mounts for her to add the question to the province's scheduled October 19 referendum on other issues like immigration. Traders' 50.5% yes probability captures this tension between strong grassroots momentum and procedural barriers; a swift appeal win or executive action could tip toward yes, while prolonged litigation favors no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$416,793Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta separatists submitted over 300,000 signatures in early May 2026—exceeding the 177,000 threshold—for a citizen-initiated referendum on provincial independence, prompting Premier Danielle Smith to signal openness to an October ballot. However, a May 13 court ruling quashed the petition, citing the government's failure to consult First Nations on treaty implications under Treaties 6, 7, and 8, with signature sheets now locked pending appeal. Smith has vowed to challenge the "anti-democratic" decision legally, while pressure mounts for her to add the question to the province's scheduled October 19 referendum on other issues like immigration. Traders' 50.5% yes probability captures this tension between strong grassroots momentum and procedural barriers; a swift appeal win or executive action could tip toward yes, while prolonged litigation favors no.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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