Traders reflect a 98.6 percent consensus that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade preparations in recent weeks alongside reduced People's Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The May summit between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained standard positions on cross-strait issues without triggering new tensions, while Taiwan's legislature approved additional defense funding to strengthen deterrence. Logistical hurdles, economic costs, and potential allied responses continue to shape this outlook. Abrupt shifts in military posture or unforeseen incidents in the Taiwan Strait remain the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before the short resolution window closes.