Traders assign the highest probability (50.5%) to Claude experiencing 8-10 downtime days in August, followed by 11-13 days (37.5%), reflecting Anthropic’s recent pattern of recurring service disruptions tied to surging demand for its latest large language models. Official status updates show a resolved outage spanning late August 14 into early August 15, additional user-reported issues on August 16, and ongoing degraded performance for Claude Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 as of August 17. These incidents stem from elevated error rates and overload conditions common with rapid scaling of frontier AI systems, consistent with earlier 2026 disruptions. With roughly half the month remaining, further spikes in usage or model-specific fixes could shift totals within the tightly contested 8-13 day range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật8-10 51%
11-13 37.4%
14+ 6.0%
5-7 3.3%
$22,452 KL.
$22,452 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5-7
3%
8-10
51%
11-13
37%
14+
6%
8-10 51%
11-13 37.4%
14+ 6.0%
5-7 3.3%
$22,452 KL.
$22,452 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$7,320 KL.
1%
5-7
$5,697 KL.
3%
8-10
$4,708 KL.
51%
11-13
$2,303 KL.
37%
14+
$2,425 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders assign the highest probability (50.5%) to Claude experiencing 8-10 downtime days in August, followed by 11-13 days (37.5%), reflecting Anthropic’s recent pattern of recurring service disruptions tied to surging demand for its latest large language models. Official status updates show a resolved outage spanning late August 14 into early August 15, additional user-reported issues on August 16, and ongoing degraded performance for Claude Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 as of August 17. These incidents stem from elevated error rates and overload conditions common with rapid scaling of frontier AI systems, consistent with earlier 2026 disruptions. With roughly half the month remaining, further spikes in usage or model-specific fixes could shift totals within the tightly contested 8-13 day range.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,452Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders assign the highest probability (50.5%) to Claude experiencing 8-10 downtime days in August, followed by 11-13 days (37.5%), reflecting Anthropic’s recent pattern of recurring service disruptions tied to surging demand for its latest large language models. Official status updates show a resolved outage spanning late August 14 into early August 15, additional user-reported issues on August 16, and ongoing degraded performance for Claude Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 as of August 17. These incidents stem from elevated error rates and overload conditions common with rapid scaling of frontier AI systems, consistent with earlier 2026 disruptions. With roughly half the month remaining, further spikes in usage or model-specific fixes could shift totals within the tightly contested 8-13 day range.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Khối lượng
$22,452Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probability (50.5%) to Claude experiencing 8-10 downtime days in August, followed by 11-13 days (37.5%), reflecting Anthropic’s recent pattern of recurring service disruptions tied to surging demand for its latest large language models. Official status updates show a resolved outage spanning late August 14 into early August 15, additional user-reported issues on August 16, and ongoing degraded performance for Claude Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 as of August 17. These incidents stem from elevated error rates and overload conditions common with rapid scaling of frontier AI systems, consistent with earlier 2026 disruptions. With roughly half the month remaining, further spikes in usage or model-specific fixes could shift totals within the tightly contested 8-13 day range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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