The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman has advanced to closing arguments and imminent jury deliberation in Oakland, sharply lowering settlement odds in the eyes of traders. Musk’s claims center on OpenAI’s alleged breach of its original nonprofit charter when shifting to a for-profit structure tied to ChatGPT and large language model development, with demands for billions in damages and leadership changes. Recent testimony from Sam Altman rejecting Musk’s equity demands, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement outreach being rebuffed, has hardened positions without resolution. With the verdict phase expected by late May and the market running through year-end, the current 71% implied probability for no settlement reflects traders’ view that the case is now likely to reach a judicial outcome rather than a negotiated exit.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$10,726 KL.
$10,726 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,726 KL.
$10,726 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman has advanced to closing arguments and imminent jury deliberation in Oakland, sharply lowering settlement odds in the eyes of traders. Musk’s claims center on OpenAI’s alleged breach of its original nonprofit charter when shifting to a for-profit structure tied to ChatGPT and large language model development, with demands for billions in damages and leadership changes. Recent testimony from Sam Altman rejecting Musk’s equity demands, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement outreach being rebuffed, has hardened positions without resolution. With the verdict phase expected by late May and the market running through year-end, the current 71% implied probability for no settlement reflects traders’ view that the case is now likely to reach a judicial outcome rather than a negotiated exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,726Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman has advanced to closing arguments and imminent jury deliberation in Oakland, sharply lowering settlement odds in the eyes of traders. Musk’s claims center on OpenAI’s alleged breach of its original nonprofit charter when shifting to a for-profit structure tied to ChatGPT and large language model development, with demands for billions in damages and leadership changes. Recent testimony from Sam Altman rejecting Musk’s equity demands, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement outreach being rebuffed, has hardened positions without resolution. With the verdict phase expected by late May and the market running through year-end, the current 71% implied probability for no settlement reflects traders’ view that the case is now likely to reach a judicial outcome rather than a negotiated exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$10,759Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman has advanced to closing arguments and imminent jury deliberation in Oakland, sharply lowering settlement odds in the eyes of traders. Musk’s claims center on OpenAI’s alleged breach of its original nonprofit charter when shifting to a for-profit structure tied to ChatGPT and large language model development, with demands for billions in damages and leadership changes. Recent testimony from Sam Altman rejecting Musk’s equity demands, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement outreach being rebuffed, has hardened positions without resolution. With the verdict phase expected by late May and the market running through year-end, the current 71% implied probability for no settlement reflects traders’ view that the case is now likely to reach a judicial outcome rather than a negotiated exit.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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