SpaceX's June outcome commands a 68% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and subsequent reporting of an early June roadshow followed by a mid-to-late month listing at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. This positioning stems from projected 2026 revenue of $22–$24 billion—driven by Starlink's subscriber growth and launch cadence—aligning with standard IPO timelines post-filing, including an imminent public prospectus expected May 15–22. August at 21.9% and July at 9.2% capture potential SEC review delays or market volatility, while "No IPO before 2027" at just 5.3% signals strong skin-in-the-game optimism amid recent Starship milestones boosting fundamentals, though lockup and liquidity rules remain key resolution risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJune 67%
August 21.8%
July 9.2%
No IPO before 2027 5.3%
$335,339 KL.
$335,339 KL.
May
2%
June
67%
July
9%
August
22%
September
3%
October
<1%
November
1%
December
<1%
No IPO before 2027
5%
June 67%
August 21.8%
July 9.2%
No IPO before 2027 5.3%
$335,339 KL.
$335,339 KL.
May
2%
June
67%
July
9%
August
22%
September
3%
October
<1%
November
1%
December
<1%
No IPO before 2027
5%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Thị trường mở: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's June outcome commands a 68% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and subsequent reporting of an early June roadshow followed by a mid-to-late month listing at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. This positioning stems from projected 2026 revenue of $22–$24 billion—driven by Starlink's subscriber growth and launch cadence—aligning with standard IPO timelines post-filing, including an imminent public prospectus expected May 15–22. August at 21.9% and July at 9.2% capture potential SEC review delays or market volatility, while "No IPO before 2027" at just 5.3% signals strong skin-in-the-game optimism amid recent Starship milestones boosting fundamentals, though lockup and liquidity rules remain key resolution risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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