The Iranian regime's resilience after the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against its collapse by May 31. Recent diplomatic moves, including the May 15 extension of the temporary ceasefire with Lebanon for 45 days, have allowed Iranian forces to reconstitute missile capabilities and internal security structures while managing economic strains from naval blockades through measures like adjusted import pricing and public calm initiatives. These steps, alongside leadership continuity under the successor to the late Supreme Leader, reflect institutional continuity and efforts to suppress potential unrest amid ongoing pressures. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome in the narrow window include sudden escalation in protests triggered by acute shortages or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs that intensify external isolation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 31 tháng 5?
Chế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 31 tháng 5?
Có
$20,837,723 KL.
$20,837,723 KL.
May 31, 2026
Có
$20,837,723 KL.
$20,837,723 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience after the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against its collapse by May 31. Recent diplomatic moves, including the May 15 extension of the temporary ceasefire with Lebanon for 45 days, have allowed Iranian forces to reconstitute missile capabilities and internal security structures while managing economic strains from naval blockades through measures like adjusted import pricing and public calm initiatives. These steps, alongside leadership continuity under the successor to the late Supreme Leader, reflect institutional continuity and efforts to suppress potential unrest amid ongoing pressures. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome in the narrow window include sudden escalation in protests triggered by acute shortages or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs that intensify external isolation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,837,723Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience after the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against its collapse by May 31. Recent diplomatic moves, including the May 15 extension of the temporary ceasefire with Lebanon for 45 days, have allowed Iranian forces to reconstitute missile capabilities and internal security structures while managing economic strains from naval blockades through measures like adjusted import pricing and public calm initiatives. These steps, alongside leadership continuity under the successor to the late Supreme Leader, reflect institutional continuity and efforts to suppress potential unrest amid ongoing pressures. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome in the narrow window include sudden escalation in protests triggered by acute shortages or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs that intensify external isolation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$20,837,723Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's resilience after the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against its collapse by May 31. Recent diplomatic moves, including the May 15 extension of the temporary ceasefire with Lebanon for 45 days, have allowed Iranian forces to reconstitute missile capabilities and internal security structures while managing economic strains from naval blockades through measures like adjusted import pricing and public calm initiatives. These steps, alongside leadership continuity under the successor to the late Supreme Leader, reflect institutional continuity and efforts to suppress potential unrest amid ongoing pressures. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome in the narrow window include sudden escalation in protests triggered by acute shortages or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs that intensify external isolation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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