The high implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 stems primarily from the limited scope of recent U.S. military actions, which have focused on targeted counter-narcotics strikes, joint operations with host governments, and one January special forces raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro without establishing occupation or broader territorial control. The Trump administration has expanded the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition and Western Hemisphere Joint Task Force, conducting boat strikes and authorizing limited ground support in places like Ecuador and Colombia, yet these efforts rely on bilateral agreements rather than unilateral invasions. Ongoing security cooperation, military training approvals such as in Mexico, and diplomatic pressure on issues like migration and China influence have not escalated to full-scale interventions, aligning with trader assessments that barriers to a new invasion remain substantial through year-end.