Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$11,462 KL.
$11,462 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$11,462 KL.
$11,462 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,462Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$11,462Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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