Geophysical limits on tectonic plate boundaries and fault rupture mechanics make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake extremely unlikely before 2027, driving strong trader consensus toward the "No" outcome at 94.8% implied probability. No event of this scale has ever been recorded, with the historical maximum of 9.5 occurring in Chile in 1960, as documented by USGS seismic data. Current global monitoring shows no unusual strain buildup or model consensus indicating escalation beyond observed subduction-zone thresholds. While sudden, unforeseen interactions along major fault systems could theoretically alter trajectories, established plate tectonics research and ongoing USGS observations reinforce the low probability of reaching this unprecedented energy release in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$602,797 交易量
$602,797 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$602,797 交易量
$602,797 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Geophysical limits on tectonic plate boundaries and fault rupture mechanics make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake extremely unlikely before 2027, driving strong trader consensus toward the "No" outcome at 94.8% implied probability. No event of this scale has ever been recorded, with the historical maximum of 9.5 occurring in Chile in 1960, as documented by USGS seismic data. Current global monitoring shows no unusual strain buildup or model consensus indicating escalation beyond observed subduction-zone thresholds. While sudden, unforeseen interactions along major fault systems could theoretically alter trajectories, established plate tectonics research and ongoing USGS observations reinforce the low probability of reaching this unprecedented energy release in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$602,797結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Geophysical limits on tectonic plate boundaries and fault rupture mechanics make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake extremely unlikely before 2027, driving strong trader consensus toward the "No" outcome at 94.8% implied probability. No event of this scale has ever been recorded, with the historical maximum of 9.5 occurring in Chile in 1960, as documented by USGS seismic data. Current global monitoring shows no unusual strain buildup or model consensus indicating escalation beyond observed subduction-zone thresholds. While sudden, unforeseen interactions along major fault systems could theoretically alter trajectories, established plate tectonics research and ongoing USGS observations reinforce the low probability of reaching this unprecedented energy release in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$602,797結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geophysical limits on tectonic plate boundaries and fault rupture mechanics make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake extremely unlikely before 2027, driving strong trader consensus toward the "No" outcome at 94.8% implied probability. No event of this scale has ever been recorded, with the historical maximum of 9.5 occurring in Chile in 1960, as documented by USGS seismic data. Current global monitoring shows no unusual strain buildup or model consensus indicating escalation beyond observed subduction-zone thresholds. While sudden, unforeseen interactions along major fault systems could theoretically alter trajectories, established plate tectonics research and ongoing USGS observations reinforce the low probability of reaching this unprecedented energy release in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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