USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
1% 機率
$816,579 交易量
$816,579 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 機率
$816,579 交易量
$816,579 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$816,579結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$816,579結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETUSGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions