Traders view the race for the number two AI lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Meta holding the top implied probabilities at 34.5% and 32.0% amid a crowded field where no single player dominates. This reflects intense competition in large language model releases, benchmark gains, and features such as style control in generative outputs, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alibaba also showing credible momentum through recent capability demonstrations and infrastructure scaling. Differentiating factors include deployment volume, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem adoption, while historical release timelines suggest last-minute announcements or regulatory shifts could still reorder the standings before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 35%
Meta 32%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 11%
$21,699 交易量
$21,699 交易量
2026-10-31
35%
Meta
32%
OpenAI
13%
Anthropic
11%
Alibaba
11%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
騰訊
<1%
微軟
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 35%
Meta 32%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 11%
$21,699 交易量
$21,699 交易量
2026-10-31
$6,158 交易量
35%
Meta
$4,456 交易量
32%
OpenAI
$1,830 交易量
13%
Anthropic
$836 交易量
11%
Alibaba
$517 交易量
11%
SpaceXAI
$498 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$553 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$493 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$501 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$483 交易量
1%
Baidu
$463 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$497 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$538 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$530 交易量
<1%
微軟
$519 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$497 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$421 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$470 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$464 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$518 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the number two AI lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Meta holding the top implied probabilities at 34.5% and 32.0% amid a crowded field where no single player dominates. This reflects intense competition in large language model releases, benchmark gains, and features such as style control in generative outputs, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alibaba also showing credible momentum through recent capability demonstrations and infrastructure scaling. Differentiating factors include deployment volume, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem adoption, while historical release timelines suggest last-minute announcements or regulatory shifts could still reorder the standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$21,699結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the number two AI lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Meta holding the top implied probabilities at 34.5% and 32.0% amid a crowded field where no single player dominates. This reflects intense competition in large language model releases, benchmark gains, and features such as style control in generative outputs, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alibaba also showing credible momentum through recent capability demonstrations and infrastructure scaling. Differentiating factors include deployment volume, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem adoption, while historical release timelines suggest last-minute announcements or regulatory shifts could still reorder the standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$21,699結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETTraders view the race for the number two AI lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Meta holding the top implied probabilities at 34.5% and 32.0% amid a crowded field where no single player dominates. This reflects intense competition in large language model releases, benchmark gains, and features such as style control in generative outputs, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alibaba also showing credible momentum through recent capability demonstrations and infrastructure scaling. Differentiating factors include deployment volume, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem adoption, while historical release timelines suggest last-minute announcements or regulatory shifts could still reorder the standings before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions