Brazil's Senate has never removed a Supreme Federal Court justice in the modern era, anchoring trader consensus at 80% against Alexandre de Moraes departing the STF before the end of 2026. Recent opposition impeachment requests, filed after Moraes suspended enforcement of a congressional sentencing law that could shorten former President Jair Bolsonaro's prison term, reflect ongoing legislative friction. Yet the constitutional threshold for removal requires supermajority support that has not materialized, while the Senate president retains control over the legislative calendar. Earlier U.S. sanctions on Moraes were lifted in late 2025, reducing external momentum for change and reinforcing institutional continuity at Brazil's highest court.