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政治·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
政治·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

最新
2026-06-30
Polymarket

$505 交易量

Polymarket
icon for May 15

May 15

$86 交易量

4%

icon for May 31

May 31

$241 交易量

19%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$505
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of longtime Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's high-profile floor crossing to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—which brought the minority government to one seat shy of a majority—traders are closely watching for the next defection amid ongoing Conservative caucus tensions under leader Pierre Poilievre. This marks the fifth such switch from Conservatives in recent months, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignments, though no new crossings have occurred in the past month despite rumors and a hot-mic incident involving MP Billy Morin rejecting overtures. Floor crossings remain legally permissible without triggering by-elections, sparking debates on parliamentary legitimacy, with upcoming byelections in Quebec and potential Liberal policy conventions as key catalysts that could prompt further shifts or stabilize the caucus.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$505
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 10%, followed by "May 15" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is "May 31" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 15" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.