Skip to main content
icon for 另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？
地緣政治·伊朗

另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？

icon for 另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？
地緣政治·伊朗

另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？

10月 31

10月 31

最新
2026-08-31
Polymarket

$763 交易量

Polymarket

8月31日

$703 交易量

4%

9月30日

$40 交易量

42%

10月31日

$20 交易量

53%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France announced on August 18 that it will expel two Iranian diplomats from Paris in the coming days, directly retaliating for Iran's July detention and alleged mistreatment of two French embassy staff in Tehran. This follows a series of similar actions, including U.S. expulsions of Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 on national security grounds, Lebanon's March 2026 declaration of Iran's ambassador as persona non grata amid Hezbollah-related tensions, and Argentina's April 2026 removal of its chargé d'affaires. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates around 50% reflects the pattern of reciprocal diplomatic measures tied to espionage concerns, proxy conflicts, and bilateral disputes, with further expulsions possible from additional countries if tensions escalate. No major scheduled diplomatic summits or de-escalation talks appear imminent that would alter the trajectory.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$763
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France announced on August 18 that it will expel two Iranian diplomats from Paris in the coming days, directly retaliating for Iran's July detention and alleged mistreatment of two French embassy staff in Tehran. This follows a series of similar actions, including U.S. expulsions of Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 on national security grounds, Lebanon's March 2026 declaration of Iran's ambassador as persona non grata amid Hezbollah-related tensions, and Argentina's April 2026 removal of its chargé d'affaires. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates around 50% reflects the pattern of reciprocal diplomatic measures tied to espionage concerns, proxy conflicts, and bilateral disputes, with further expulsions possible from additional countries if tensions escalate. No major scheduled diplomatic summits or de-escalation talks appear imminent that would alter the trajectory.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$763
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

相關

icon for 到12月31日，是否會有任何國家驅逐美國大使？

到12月31日，是否會有任何國家驅逐美國大使？

26%
是
icon for 加拿大會在12月31日前驅逐美國大使嗎？

加拿大會在12月31日前驅逐美國大使嗎？

5%
是
icon for 到12月31日，是否會有任何國家驅逐以色列大使？

到12月31日，是否會有任何國家驅逐以色列大使？

16%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10月31日" at 53%, followed by "9月30日" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？" is "10月31日" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9月30日" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "另一位被...驅逐的伊朗外交官？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.