Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera leads the Colima gubernatorial race with trader consensus at 72 percent, reflecting Morena’s designation of her as state coordinator backed by the PVEM and ongoing PT alliance talks. Recent October 2026 polls place her at 31–32 percent statewide preference, ahead of PAN’s Riult Rivera Gutiérrez near 23–31 percent and lower figures for PRI’s Mely Romero Celis and other opposition names. Morena’s national positioning and early consolidation around Bayardo, a former Manzanillo mayor, contrast with a fragmented opposition still navigating internal selections and potential coalitions ahead of the June 2027 vote. No major new catalysts have altered these probabilities in recent days.