Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於180-199 44.9%
200-219 29.8%
220-239 11.8%
160-179 7.1%
$9,610,124 交易量
$9,610,124 交易量
2026-05-19
140-159
<1%
160-179
7%
180-199
45%
200-219
30%
220-239
12%
240-259
2%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 44.9%
200-219 29.8%
220-239 11.8%
160-179 7.1%
$9,610,124 交易量
$9,610,124 交易量
2026-05-19
140-159
$706,013 交易量
<1%
160-179
$457,910 交易量
7%
180-199
$366,580 交易量
45%
200-219
$349,068 交易量
30%
220-239
$371,500 交易量
12%
240-259
$308,836 交易量
2%
260-279
$292,851 交易量
1%
280-299
$267,943 交易量
<1%
300-319
$322,594 交易量
<1%
320-339
$400,016 交易量
<1%
340-359
$429,849 交易量
<1%
360-379
$416,794 交易量
<1%
380-399
$400,319 交易量
<1%
400-419
$540,293 交易量
<1%
420-439
$157,801 交易量
<1%
440-459
$82,148 交易量
<1%
460-479
$67,044 交易量
<1%
480-499
$29,190 交易量
<1%
500+
$241,769 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
交易量
$9,610,124結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$9,610,124結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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