Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 200-219 tweets for Elon Musk on X from May 12-19, holding a 44.9% implied probability, followed closely by 220-239 at 34.2%. This positioning stems from his steady daily output of roughly 25-30 posts amid ongoing xAI product drops, SpaceX commentary, and cultural debates, mirroring verified tallies from prior weeks that settled in the low 100s for seven-day spans. Momentum has held without major spikes from elections or launches, though late-week activity on Grok updates and platform milestones could nudge totals higher before the May 19 cutoff. Historical patterns show Musk moderating volume absent breaking news, yet his unpredictable style keeps adjacent bins competitive for traders weighing real-money signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於200-219 44.9%
220-239 33.9%
180-199 8.5%
240-259 7.2%
$9,965,732 交易量
$9,965,732 交易量
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
9%
200-219
45%
220-239
34%
240-259
7%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 44.9%
220-239 33.9%
180-199 8.5%
240-259 7.2%
$9,965,732 交易量
$9,965,732 交易量
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
9%
200-219
45%
220-239
34%
240-259
7%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 200-219 tweets for Elon Musk on X from May 12-19, holding a 44.9% implied probability, followed closely by 220-239 at 34.2%. This positioning stems from his steady daily output of roughly 25-30 posts amid ongoing xAI product drops, SpaceX commentary, and cultural debates, mirroring verified tallies from prior weeks that settled in the low 100s for seven-day spans. Momentum has held without major spikes from elections or launches, though late-week activity on Grok updates and platform milestones could nudge totals higher before the May 19 cutoff. Historical patterns show Musk moderating volume absent breaking news, yet his unpredictable style keeps adjacent bins competitive for traders weighing real-money signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions