Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-64 55%
65-89 45%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 1.5%
$975,065 交易量
$975,065 交易量
2026-05-18
少於40
<1%
40-64
55%
65-89
45%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 55%
65-89 45%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 1.5%
$975,065 交易量
$975,065 交易量
2026-05-18
少於40
$345,763 交易量
<1%
40-64
$109,195 交易量
55%
65-89
$102,943 交易量
45%
90-114
$130,925 交易量
2%
115-139
$108,292 交易量
1%
140-164
$63,192 交易量
<1%
165-189
$53,265 交易量
<1%
190-214
$37,343 交易量
<1%
215-239
$15,853 交易量
<1%
240+
$19,735 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$975,065結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$975,065結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions