Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於140-159 100.0%
＜20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,408,024 交易量
$13,408,024 交易量
2026-05-15
＜20
否
20-39
否
40-59
否
60-79
否
80-99
否
100-119
否
120-139
否
140-159
是
160-179
否
180-199
否
200-219
否
220-239
否
240-259
否
260-279
否
280-299
否
300-319
否
320-339
否
340-359
否
360-379
否
380-399
否
400-419
否
420-439
否
440-459
否
460-479
否
480-499
否
500+
否
140-159 100.0%
＜20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,408,024 交易量
$13,408,024 交易量
2026-05-15
＜20
$81,572 交易量
否
20-39
$216,988 交易量
否
40-59
$1,113,353 交易量
否
60-79
$985,520 交易量
否
80-99
$1,996,557 交易量
否
100-119
$1,011,099 交易量
否
120-139
$1,101,040 交易量
否
140-159
$1,104,427 交易量
是
160-179
$1,245,166 交易量
否
180-199
$1,010,026 交易量
否
200-219
$741,191 交易量
否
220-239
$630,534 交易量
否
240-259
$406,327 交易量
否
260-279
$273,443 交易量
否
280-299
$209,007 交易量
否
300-319
$209,078 交易量
否
320-339
$194,069 交易量
否
340-359
$66,533 交易量
否
360-379
$71,558 交易量
否
380-399
$68,097 交易量
否
400-419
$59,977 交易量
否
420-439
$120,221 交易量
否
440-459
$92,854 交易量
否
460-479
$118,300 交易量
否
480-499
$88,095 交易量
否
500+
$192,994 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$13,408,024結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$13,408,024結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions