Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran has responded with large-scale troop deployments, including mechanized forces and artillery along southern coastal provinces, to prepare for potential amphibious threats. Trader-implied probabilities for any change in control by late September stay extremely low, reflecting the strict resolution criteria that exclude temporary raids, strikes, or naval presence and require confirmed primary control by another actor. No verified developments indicate an imminent shift in authority over the island.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$198,462 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
1%
$198,462 交易量
9月30日
$21,191 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran has responded with large-scale troop deployments, including mechanized forces and artillery along southern coastal provinces, to prepare for potential amphibious threats. Trader-implied probabilities for any change in control by late September stay extremely low, reflecting the strict resolution criteria that exclude temporary raids, strikes, or naval presence and require confirmed primary control by another actor. No verified developments indicate an imminent shift in authority over the island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$198,462結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran has responded with large-scale troop deployments, including mechanized forces and artillery along southern coastal provinces, to prepare for potential amphibious threats. Trader-implied probabilities for any change in control by late September stay extremely low, reflecting the strict resolution criteria that exclude temporary raids, strikes, or naval presence and require confirmed primary control by another actor. No verified developments indicate an imminent shift in authority over the island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$198,462結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETFarsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran has responded with large-scale troop deployments, including mechanized forces and artillery along southern coastal provinces, to prepare for potential amphibious threats. Trader-implied probabilities for any change in control by late September stay extremely low, reflecting the strict resolution criteria that exclude temporary raids, strikes, or naval presence and require confirmed primary control by another actor. No verified developments indicate an imminent shift in authority over the island.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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