Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza through repeated interceptions of civilian aid vessels in international waters, as shown by the April 30 seizure of over 20 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla near Crete, where forces detained activists and diverted the convoy. New vessels from the same coalition departed Turkish and Greek ports on May 13-14 for another attempt to reach Gaza by late May, yet organizers have not altered course to avoid the established enforcement zone. This pattern of swift naval action, combined with the limited window before the May 31 cutoff, underpins the 63 percent trader consensus against entry into Israeli waters. Historical outcomes of similar missions further reinforce expectations that diplomatic and operational barriers will persist.