Google's October 28 announcement of Gemini 4 Carbon, positioned as its strongest frontier model with superior cybersecurity benchmarks and long-horizon capabilities, drives the 60.9% implied probability on a November 10 public release. The model follows Gemini 4 Argon by just two weeks and began limited access for cyber defenders via the Fairwind Program that same week, with Google stating broader availability to developers, businesses, and consumers would follow "as soon as possible" after guardrail refinements. Traders appear to expect a similar 13-day ramp from announcement to wider rollout as seen with Argon, concentrating odds on the immediate days ahead amid the absence of new delays or extended testing signals.