Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, form the main driver of trader views on whether Iranian control could end by the resolution date. Hengam sits among several small islands forming part of Iran's defensive positions near key shipping lanes, prompting analysis of potential amphibious operations or seizures during escalated conflict phases. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait has faced repeated tests through Iranian shipping restrictions and subsequent US responses, with no confirmed change in island sovereignty to date. Future developments hinge on any expansion of ground or naval actions, diplomatic talks, or ceasefire enforcement within the market's timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$121,230 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$121,230 交易量
8月31日
$93,682 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, form the main driver of trader views on whether Iranian control could end by the resolution date. Hengam sits among several small islands forming part of Iran's defensive positions near key shipping lanes, prompting analysis of potential amphibious operations or seizures during escalated conflict phases. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait has faced repeated tests through Iranian shipping restrictions and subsequent US responses, with no confirmed change in island sovereignty to date. Future developments hinge on any expansion of ground or naval actions, diplomatic talks, or ceasefire enforcement within the market's timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$121,230結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, form the main driver of trader views on whether Iranian control could end by the resolution date. Hengam sits among several small islands forming part of Iran's defensive positions near key shipping lanes, prompting analysis of potential amphibious operations or seizures during escalated conflict phases. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait has faced repeated tests through Iranian shipping restrictions and subsequent US responses, with no confirmed change in island sovereignty to date. Future developments hinge on any expansion of ground or naval actions, diplomatic talks, or ceasefire enforcement within the market's timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$121,230結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, form the main driver of trader views on whether Iranian control could end by the resolution date. Hengam sits among several small islands forming part of Iran's defensive positions near key shipping lanes, prompting analysis of potential amphibious operations or seizures during escalated conflict phases. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait has faced repeated tests through Iranian shipping restrictions and subsequent US responses, with no confirmed change in island sovereignty to date. Future developments hinge on any expansion of ground or naval actions, diplomatic talks, or ceasefire enforcement within the market's timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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