US strikes on Iranian military sites, including reported attacks on Hengam Island in July 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, have heightened focus on the island's strategic position near key shipping lanes. However, these operations have targeted infrastructure rather than establishing alternative control, with analysts noting that seizing smaller islands like Hengam would require sustained amphibious campaigns vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, and naval forces. Broader US-Iran exchanges since February 2026 center on waterway access and sovereignty assertions, yet no territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam. Trader consensus reflects the logistical and military barriers to rapid change, tempered by risks of escalation or negotiated de-escalation in coming months.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$121,230 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$121,230 交易量
8月31日
$93,682 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Iranian military sites, including reported attacks on Hengam Island in July 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, have heightened focus on the island's strategic position near key shipping lanes. However, these operations have targeted infrastructure rather than establishing alternative control, with analysts noting that seizing smaller islands like Hengam would require sustained amphibious campaigns vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, and naval forces. Broader US-Iran exchanges since February 2026 center on waterway access and sovereignty assertions, yet no territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam. Trader consensus reflects the logistical and military barriers to rapid change, tempered by risks of escalation or negotiated de-escalation in coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$121,230結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Iranian military sites, including reported attacks on Hengam Island in July 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, have heightened focus on the island's strategic position near key shipping lanes. However, these operations have targeted infrastructure rather than establishing alternative control, with analysts noting that seizing smaller islands like Hengam would require sustained amphibious campaigns vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, and naval forces. Broader US-Iran exchanges since February 2026 center on waterway access and sovereignty assertions, yet no territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam. Trader consensus reflects the logistical and military barriers to rapid change, tempered by risks of escalation or negotiated de-escalation in coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$121,230結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes on Iranian military sites, including reported attacks on Hengam Island in July 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, have heightened focus on the island's strategic position near key shipping lanes. However, these operations have targeted infrastructure rather than establishing alternative control, with analysts noting that seizing smaller islands like Hengam would require sustained amphibious campaigns vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, and naval forces. Broader US-Iran exchanges since February 2026 center on waterway access and sovereignty assertions, yet no territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam. Trader consensus reflects the logistical and military barriers to rapid change, tempered by risks of escalation or negotiated de-escalation in coming months.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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