**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air. Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月29日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
6月29日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
12°C 63%
11°C 28%
13°C 11%
14°C 1.3%
最新
$13,507 交易量
最新
$13,507 交易量
2026-06-29
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
28%
12°C
63%
13°C
11%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 63%
11°C 28%
13°C 11%
14°C 1.3%
最新
$13,507 交易量
最新
$13,507 交易量
2026-06-29
6°C or below
$216 交易量
<1%
7°C
$257 交易量
<1%
8°C
$319 交易量
<1%
9°C
$1,240 交易量
<1%
10°C
$491 交易量
1%
11°C
$2,270 交易量
28%
12°C
$1,549 交易量
63%
13°C
$5,237 交易量
11%
14°C
$635 交易量
1%
15°C
$984 交易量
1%
16°C or higher
$314 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air.
Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$13,507結束日期
2026-06-29市場開放時間
Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air.
Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,507結束日期
2026-06-29市場開放時間
Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air. Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions