Recent redistricting in North Carolina, finalized in October 2025 and upheld by federal courts in August 2026, shifted Republican-leaning counties into the 1st District to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while slightly easing the 3rd, preserving a baseline 10-4 Republican advantage across the 14 districts. Trader sentiment remains split among 3–5 Democratic seats because a Democratic generic ballot edge of 4–8 points in 2026 polling, combined with competitive ratings for the 1st and open 11th districts from forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball, offsets the map’s structural tilt and raises the possibility of one or two flips. Key variables that could widen outcomes include the strength of the national midterm environment, candidate fundraising and turnout in eastern and western swing areas, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that either solidify Republican holds or enable modest Democratic gains beyond the current four safe seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5 35%
4 31%
3 22%
6+ 15.8%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少於3
1%
3
22%
4
31%
5
35%
6+
16%
5 35%
4 31%
3 22%
6+ 15.8%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少於3
$456 交易量
1%
3
$386 交易量
22%
4
$1,240 交易量
31%
5
$2,844 交易量
35%
6+
$398 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting in North Carolina, finalized in October 2025 and upheld by federal courts in August 2026, shifted Republican-leaning counties into the 1st District to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while slightly easing the 3rd, preserving a baseline 10-4 Republican advantage across the 14 districts. Trader sentiment remains split among 3–5 Democratic seats because a Democratic generic ballot edge of 4–8 points in 2026 polling, combined with competitive ratings for the 1st and open 11th districts from forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball, offsets the map’s structural tilt and raises the possibility of one or two flips. Key variables that could widen outcomes include the strength of the national midterm environment, candidate fundraising and turnout in eastern and western swing areas, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that either solidify Republican holds or enable modest Democratic gains beyond the current four safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
交易量
$5,325結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting in North Carolina, finalized in October 2025 and upheld by federal courts in August 2026, shifted Republican-leaning counties into the 1st District to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while slightly easing the 3rd, preserving a baseline 10-4 Republican advantage across the 14 districts. Trader sentiment remains split among 3–5 Democratic seats because a Democratic generic ballot edge of 4–8 points in 2026 polling, combined with competitive ratings for the 1st and open 11th districts from forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball, offsets the map’s structural tilt and raises the possibility of one or two flips. Key variables that could widen outcomes include the strength of the national midterm environment, candidate fundraising and turnout in eastern and western swing areas, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that either solidify Republican holds or enable modest Democratic gains beyond the current four safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,325結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent redistricting in North Carolina, finalized in October 2025 and upheld by federal courts in August 2026, shifted Republican-leaning counties into the 1st District to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while slightly easing the 3rd, preserving a baseline 10-4 Republican advantage across the 14 districts. Trader sentiment remains split among 3–5 Democratic seats because a Democratic generic ballot edge of 4–8 points in 2026 polling, combined with competitive ratings for the 1st and open 11th districts from forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball, offsets the map’s structural tilt and raises the possibility of one or two flips. Key variables that could widen outcomes include the strength of the national midterm environment, candidate fundraising and turnout in eastern and western swing areas, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that either solidify Republican holds or enable modest Democratic gains beyond the current four safe seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions