Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as Iran’s Supreme Leader through the end of 2026 because he was installed in March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts immediately after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the ongoing war. The wartime selection emphasized continuity and IRGC backing despite dynastic concerns and Mojtaba’s limited public profile. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, amid persistent reports of severe injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, continue to affirm his authority and health into September 2026 while state media highlights his qualifications. This has stabilized the hardline structure against alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or reformist figures, with no scheduled institutional process or confirmed leadership shift expected before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 84.2%
沒有國家元首 4.8%
雷扎·巴列維 2.7%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德 1.8%
$39,522,726 交易量
$39,522,726 交易量
2026-12-30
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
84%
沒有國家元首
5%
雷扎·巴列維
3%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
2%
哈桑·魯哈尼
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
1%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
<1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
<1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
<1%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 84.2%
沒有國家元首 4.8%
雷扎·巴列維 2.7%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德 1.8%
$39,522,726 交易量
$39,522,726 交易量
2026-12-30
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
$6,533,349 交易量
84%
沒有國家元首
$1,162,105 交易量
5%
雷扎·巴列維
$687,502 交易量
3%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
$1,131,815 交易量
2%
哈桑·魯哈尼
$948,612 交易量
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$2,320,954 交易量
1%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
$923,733 交易量
<1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
$1,026,717 交易量
<1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,443,798 交易量
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$835,241 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
$780,911 交易量
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
$406,939 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
$461,994 交易量
<1%
Navid Shomali
$228,205 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$859,577 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
$441,490 交易量
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
$563,115 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
$3,157,756 交易量
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
$864,867 交易量
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
$3,694,989 交易量
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$155,679 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$206,808 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
$3,360,621 交易量
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
$244,071 交易量
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
$399,096 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$5,215,128 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$295,040 交易量
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
$267,607 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
$314,518 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
$353,629 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as Iran’s Supreme Leader through the end of 2026 because he was installed in March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts immediately after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the ongoing war. The wartime selection emphasized continuity and IRGC backing despite dynastic concerns and Mojtaba’s limited public profile. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, amid persistent reports of severe injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, continue to affirm his authority and health into September 2026 while state media highlights his qualifications. This has stabilized the hardline structure against alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or reformist figures, with no scheduled institutional process or confirmed leadership shift expected before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$39,522,726結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as Iran’s Supreme Leader through the end of 2026 because he was installed in March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts immediately after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the ongoing war. The wartime selection emphasized continuity and IRGC backing despite dynastic concerns and Mojtaba’s limited public profile. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, amid persistent reports of severe injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, continue to affirm his authority and health into September 2026 while state media highlights his qualifications. This has stabilized the hardline structure against alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or reformist figures, with no scheduled institutional process or confirmed leadership shift expected before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$39,522,726結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETMojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus as Iran’s Supreme Leader through the end of 2026 because he was installed in March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts immediately after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the ongoing war. The wartime selection emphasized continuity and IRGC backing despite dynastic concerns and Mojtaba’s limited public profile. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, amid persistent reports of severe injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, continue to affirm his authority and health into September 2026 while state media highlights his qualifications. This has stabilized the hardline structure against alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, or reformist figures, with no scheduled institutional process or confirmed leadership shift expected before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions