Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures and phased reopenings occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA issuing risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace operates normally following security assessments by Transportation Minister Miri Regev, though volatility persists and many carriers have not resumed full service. Escalation risks tied to proxy threats or further strikes could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, while de-escalation or diplomatic progress would support continued operations through late summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$27,064,651 交易量
2026-07-15
8月15日
<1%
8月31日
5%
$27,064,651 交易量
8月15日
$1,004,975 交易量
<1%
8月31日
$1,036,491 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures and phased reopenings occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA issuing risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace operates normally following security assessments by Transportation Minister Miri Regev, though volatility persists and many carriers have not resumed full service. Escalation risks tied to proxy threats or further strikes could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, while de-escalation or diplomatic progress would support continued operations through late summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
交易量
$27,064,651結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures and phased reopenings occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA issuing risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace operates normally following security assessments by Transportation Minister Miri Regev, though volatility persists and many carriers have not resumed full service. Escalation risks tied to proxy threats or further strikes could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, while de-escalation or diplomatic progress would support continued operations through late summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$27,064,651結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, remain the primary driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures and phased reopenings occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA issuing risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace operates normally following security assessments by Transportation Minister Miri Regev, though volatility persists and many carriers have not resumed full service. Escalation risks tied to proxy threats or further strikes could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, while de-escalation or diplomatic progress would support continued operations through late summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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