**Recent Israeli polls place The Democrats, the left-wing alliance of Labor and Meretz led by Yair Golan, on track for roughly 8–10 Knesset seats in the October 27 election.** This range aligns with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability (54%) to a 7–8% national vote share, followed by 9%+ at 38%. Multiple surveys released between September 6–14, including Kantar/Kan and Midgam/Channel 12, show the party holding steady in that band amid a fragmented field where neither major bloc reaches a clear majority. The party’s June–July primary produced a high-turnout slate emphasizing security pragmatists and protest-movement figures, while its recent petition to disqualify Otzma Yehudit has reinforced its opposition profile without measurably altering support levels. Absent late-breaking shifts in turnout or coalition signals, current polling averages continue to anchor market expectations in the 7–9% corridor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7-8% 42%
8-9% 33%
6-7% 24%
少於6％ 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於6％
14%
6-7%
32%
7-8%
51%
8-9%
25%
9%以上
39%
7-8% 42%
8-9% 33%
6-7% 24%
少於6％ 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於6％
$0 交易量
14%
6-7%
$16 交易量
32%
7-8%
$160 交易量
51%
8-9%
$3 交易量
25%
9%以上
$18 交易量
39%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent Israeli polls place The Democrats, the left-wing alliance of Labor and Meretz led by Yair Golan, on track for roughly 8–10 Knesset seats in the October 27 election.** This range aligns with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability (54%) to a 7–8% national vote share, followed by 9%+ at 38%. Multiple surveys released between September 6–14, including Kantar/Kan and Midgam/Channel 12, show the party holding steady in that band amid a fragmented field where neither major bloc reaches a clear majority.
The party’s June–July primary produced a high-turnout slate emphasizing security pragmatists and protest-movement figures, while its recent petition to disqualify Otzma Yehudit has reinforced its opposition profile without measurably altering support levels. Absent late-breaking shifts in turnout or coalition signals, current polling averages continue to anchor market expectations in the 7–9% corridor.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
交易量
$197結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent Israeli polls place The Democrats, the left-wing alliance of Labor and Meretz led by Yair Golan, on track for roughly 8–10 Knesset seats in the October 27 election.** This range aligns with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability (54%) to a 7–8% national vote share, followed by 9%+ at 38%. Multiple surveys released between September 6–14, including Kantar/Kan and Midgam/Channel 12, show the party holding steady in that band amid a fragmented field where neither major bloc reaches a clear majority.
The party’s June–July primary produced a high-turnout slate emphasizing security pragmatists and protest-movement figures, while its recent petition to disqualify Otzma Yehudit has reinforced its opposition profile without measurably altering support levels. Absent late-breaking shifts in turnout or coalition signals, current polling averages continue to anchor market expectations in the 7–9% corridor.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$197結束日期
2026-10-27市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET**Recent Israeli polls place The Democrats, the left-wing alliance of Labor and Meretz led by Yair Golan, on track for roughly 8–10 Knesset seats in the October 27 election.** This range aligns with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability (54%) to a 7–8% national vote share, followed by 9%+ at 38%. Multiple surveys released between September 6–14, including Kantar/Kan and Midgam/Channel 12, show the party holding steady in that band amid a fragmented field where neither major bloc reaches a clear majority. The party’s June–July primary produced a high-turnout slate emphasizing security pragmatists and protest-movement figures, while its recent petition to disqualify Otzma Yehudit has reinforced its opposition profile without measurably altering support levels. Absent late-breaking shifts in turnout or coalition signals, current polling averages continue to anchor market expectations in the 7–9% corridor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions