Lisa Murkowski’s continued registration as a Republican and absence of any formal departure announcement sustain the 91.5% “No” consensus. Past 2025 comments expressing openness to independent status or conditional caucusing with Democrats never translated into a party switch, and she has repeatedly reaffirmed her preference to remain registered Republican while advancing Alaska-specific priorities. Recent Senate actions, including support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after securing state concessions and consistent alignment with the administration on roughly 85% of major votes, reinforce institutional ties without crossing into independent or Democratic affiliation. With her term extending to 2028 and no scheduled events forcing a binary choice before year-end, traders view a 2026 exit as unlikely absent a major catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
9% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lisa Murkowski’s continued registration as a Republican and absence of any formal departure announcement sustain the 91.5% “No” consensus. Past 2025 comments expressing openness to independent status or conditional caucusing with Democrats never translated into a party switch, and she has repeatedly reaffirmed her preference to remain registered Republican while advancing Alaska-specific priorities. Recent Senate actions, including support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after securing state concessions and consistent alignment with the administration on roughly 85% of major votes, reinforce institutional ties without crossing into independent or Democratic affiliation. With her term extending to 2028 and no scheduled events forcing a binary choice before year-end, traders view a 2026 exit as unlikely absent a major catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$4,899結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lisa Murkowski’s continued registration as a Republican and absence of any formal departure announcement sustain the 91.5% “No” consensus. Past 2025 comments expressing openness to independent status or conditional caucusing with Democrats never translated into a party switch, and she has repeatedly reaffirmed her preference to remain registered Republican while advancing Alaska-specific priorities. Recent Senate actions, including support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after securing state concessions and consistent alignment with the administration on roughly 85% of major votes, reinforce institutional ties without crossing into independent or Democratic affiliation. With her term extending to 2028 and no scheduled events forcing a binary choice before year-end, traders view a 2026 exit as unlikely absent a major catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,899結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETLisa Murkowski’s continued registration as a Republican and absence of any formal departure announcement sustain the 91.5% “No” consensus. Past 2025 comments expressing openness to independent status or conditional caucusing with Democrats never translated into a party switch, and she has repeatedly reaffirmed her preference to remain registered Republican while advancing Alaska-specific priorities. Recent Senate actions, including support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after securing state concessions and consistent alignment with the administration on roughly 85% of major votes, reinforce institutional ties without crossing into independent or Democratic affiliation. With her term extending to 2028 and no scheduled events forcing a binary choice before year-end, traders view a 2026 exit as unlikely absent a major catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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