Skip to main content
icon for Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?

Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?

icon for Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?

Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?

41% 機率
Polymarket
最新

41% 機率
Polymarket
最新
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent Survation polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election shows Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at 7-8%, behind Labour and Reform UK. The new party, launched earlier this year by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, faces competition for right-leaning voters amid public clashes between the groups over vote splitting. Lowe’s internal canvassing claims of higher support have not aligned with independent surveys of roughly 500 respondents. With the contest days away and Restore Britain contesting its first parliamentary seat, the polling trajectory and limited time for momentum shifts underpin trader consensus that the party is unlikely to clear 10%.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
交易量
$3,963
結束日期
2026-06-18
市場開放時間
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent Survation polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election shows Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at 7-8%, behind Labour and Reform UK. The new party, launched earlier this year by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, faces competition for right-leaning voters amid public clashes between the groups over vote splitting. Lowe’s internal canvassing claims of higher support have not aligned with independent surveys of roughly 500 respondents. With the contest days away and Restore Britain contesting its first parliamentary seat, the polling trajectory and limited time for momentum shifts underpin trader consensus that the party is unlikely to clear 10%.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
交易量
$3,963
結束日期
2026-06-18
市場開放時間
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "梅克菲爾德補選:恢復英國黨獲得超過10%?" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?" is "梅克菲爾德補選:恢復英國黨獲得超過10%?" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Makerfield補選:恢復英國獲得10%以上?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.