Recent polling volatility and competitive dynamics in both races underpin the fragmented market pricing, with no single combo outcome exceeding 35%. In Taipei, incumbent KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an faces DPP challenger Puma Shen in a contest where surveys have alternated leads amid debates over urban renewal and governance records. In New Taipei, KMT candidate Lee Shu-chuan contests DPP legislator Su Chiao-hui, whose recent gains in traditionally KMT-leaning districts reflect efforts to end two decades of opposition control through emphasis on balanced district development and jobs. Mid-November policy forums highlighted infrastructure priorities versus administrative reforms, while mixed individual-race polls and modest KMT internal distancing from party leadership have sustained uncertainty. Traders price a range of split or alternative results highest as the November 28 vote nears, consistent with historical patterns of late swings in Taiwan’s local elections.